Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Both authors two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has got important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
